The Opportunty Cost of deficient national educational & training provisions The CESS-Cigány Economy Simulation System is an econometric model based upon a SPF-Structural Production Function. It calculates the opportunity cost of the inadequate provisions of primary & secondary education and vocational training in Hungary What this part of the model will calculate and show  This part of the model generates a series for the number of non-Roma and Roma children born each year during the period 1985 through 2025. This 40 year series is a 20 years forward projection and 20 years historic. This data will be presented in 2 tables (1) for 1985 through 2005 and, (2) for 2005 through 2025. Results for 2006:   For the year 2006, at the top of the second table, estimates of the following will be provided: the % Roma in the total pre-school population (0-6), the % Roma in the school age population (6-16) and the % Roma in 2006 school entry year (6 years of age). Why is this important?:  The school age population feeds directly into vocational training and or the workforce. Hungary has an ongoing practice, initiated in 1989, of segregating and providing deficient education to Roma children which, by default, precludes vocational training. The simulation serves to show the dramatic rise in the numbers impacted by such policy. What growth rate is used and why:  The growth in the school age population is directly related to the live birth rate. This is always significantly higher than the general population growth rate which is lowered by deducting the death rate (people normally die a long time after leaving school). Live birth rates:  The Cigány live birth rate during the 1984-2006 was a steady 3.6% p.a. The system is set to run using this growth rate but the user can select other rates if desired. The non-Roma population live birth rates have been an unstable rate of around +0.78% p.a. for the time being the simulator runs using this figure. Please click OK to continue.