The Opportunty Cost of deficient national educational & training provisions The CESS-Cigány Economy Simulation System is an econometric model based upon a SPF-Structural Production Function. It calculates the opportunity cost of the inadequate provisions of primary & secondary education and vocational training in Hungary What this part of the model will calculate and show:  This part of the model generates a longer series of the number of non-Roma and Roma children born each year during the period 1965 through 2025. This 60 year series is a 20 years forward projection and 40 years historic. These groups are allocated each year to the workforce (16-65). In the final table of 3, for the year 2006, there is a calculation of the % Roma in the workforce entry (16 years of age) as well as an estimate of the % Roma in the 2006 workforce. Why is this important?:  The workforce is fed directly by the post-school age population. In Hungary the increasingly Roma proportion has suffered from a severe educational and vocational deficiency which depresses earning capacity. This simulation shows the rise in the numbers thus affected by such policy. The simulation also shows at the top of the third tabulation an estimate of the GNP deficit for 2006. What growth rate is used and why:  The growth in the school age population is directly related to the live birth rate. This is always significantly higher than the general population growth rate which is lowered by deducting the death rate (people normally die a long time after leaving school). Live birth rates:  The Cigány live birth rate during the 1984 - 2006 has been a steady 3.6% p.a. The system is set to run using this growth rate but the user can select other rates if desired. The non-Roma population live birth rates have been an unstable rate of around +0.78% p.a. for the time being the simulator runs using this figure. Please click OK to continue.